Theresa May’s snap Election gamble – where’s it all going to end?

The British General Election is one week away TODAY, folks!

While Theresa May clearly has a credible (if not terribly valid?) excuse for calling a snap General Election 3 years early, in saying that she “changed her mind” to get a much needed clear ‘public mandate’ for BREXIT because the other parties were railing against it, most of us see it as a cynical, opportunistic, political move to trounce Labour when it was down and out, don’t we?

Yes, her game plan was to substantially increase the Conservative’s palsy 17 majority, to a more substantial safe number and so ensure that the Tory’s can have a full further 5 years in power with the capability of an easy ride to implement its policies – she furthermore wished to seize the opportunity to deliver the coup d’état to Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘zero-percent’ Labour Party, eh?

Now, no doubt many will want to see May get her comeuppance for her temerity, but that isn’t solely why the media seem to be hiking-up Labour’s chances in this Election, and therefore the potential for a Tory defeat that would leave Theresa with egg all over her face, surely? No, a foregone-conclusion of a General Election, would make things boring while an exciting, close run, unpredictable outcome would sell newspapers, generate TV viewers’ and radio listeners’ interest, and moreover would keep the pollsters profits very healthy? [whether or not they ever actually get the result correct! In the current election, different polling companies are forecasting wildly different results like say 3 or 12 points difference between the parties!).

As pointed out before by this blogger, this IS certainly a presidential style election (pre-determined by May), and there is no doubt about it, but Corbyn has so far performed better in it during debates than May has. Plus Labour’s policies are littered with the usual electoral bribes that make attractive headlines, while May’s withdrawal of previous ‘Tory’ bribes (which she believes is getting away’able with, because they were so far ahead in the previous polls), and that has certainly swayed some floating voters. However, the voters don’t trust Labour’s messenger (Corbyn) and not least because he personally doesn’t support major parts of the Labour manifesto, but also his track record on terrorism, defence, war, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, abandonment of Northern Ireland, amongst other things, is a drowning millstone around Labour’s neck, isn’t it? Perhaps Corbyn’s biggest problem is though that he isn’t trusted by his OWN bleeding MPs, so how the heck is he hoping to convince the public that he is a credible Prime Minister, eh?

Now, don’t misunderstand the overall situation, will you? They say ‘beauty is in the eye of the beholder’ and Corbyn is unquestionably ‘well appreciated’ by the rank and file of labour movement’s Momentum, if not by many of the traditional Labour supporters? However, his general popularity, though better than some Labour leaders of the past, is very low indeed and probably half that of May’s – her personal standing is comparable with her predecessor David Cameron over Miliband [but does not in any way match Labour’s Tony Blair who was streets ahead of Hague when he got his landslide victory in 2001 (he even topped Conservative’s Margaret Thatcher ‘best’ shot popularity rating). [However, May’s relentless attacks on Corbyn’s character may have in fact been counterproductive, as he has simply gained sympathy as a consequence, don’t you think?].

The parties have all been ‘grandstanding’ and pontificating in presenting policies, some popular others not so [even though (or perhaps because?) they have no chance of being in a position of being able to implement them], that are unsustainable, unworkable, or non-implementable.

That said, the most likely outcome in a week’s time is that the Tories will gain a reasonable number of extra seats while ALL the other parties will probably lose out (Labour, SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens, PlaidC). [Just recall the Local elections just last month, when Labour was trounced, and the other parties also lost their councils’ eats heavily?].

Oh yes, many people who were minded to vote Conservative, might have had a change of mind because of the Tory manifesto, but that will make very little difference where it counts, or cause the demise of a Tory majority (despite the fact that the pollsters are saying the gap is narrowing – it is possibly still nearly a healthy ten percent?). There will be no last minute swerve to the left, nor any dramatic general change of opinion, so Momentum’s interventionist dream of a hard-left government will be shattered forever, don’t you think? Neither will there be a so called progressive alliance government that the minor parties daydream about, will there?

The reason for that will be simply that the voting population on the day will be focusing on BREXIT and will return Theresa May as the one person to deliver the best outcome of our leaving the European Union, won’t they?

That is not necessarily all good news for all of us nevertheless, as a totally powerful ‘in-control’ government able to implement its policies without the scrutiny of an effective opposition, doesn’t make for good governance, does it?

 

[Whatever your personal views, if you have a vote in the UK’s 2017 General Election, use it and employ your best judgement in doing so, won’t you?]

 

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