US Presidential nominations 2016 – result in New York meaningless?

REPUBLICAN

  republicanconvention2012  verses   democrateconvention2012 DEMOCRATIC CONVENTIONS

The media are out there again with headlines that mislead the gullible public, aren’t they? They blare out the news that Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump have both amazingly suddenly become ‘unstoppable’ as the Presidential candidate for their respective parties.

Whether or not they are actually in that esteemed position may well be a moot point, but certainly the New York Primaries’ results were anything but a surprise to anybody who knows anything about this year’s Presidential candidates’ race, are they? You see the winners in that State were totally predictable before the first vote was ever cast there, surely? Now, whether their decisive wins would mean that either of them would ‘irretrievably’ secure their front-runner position, is another matter, but it is obvious that we didn’t have to wait for the New York actual results to come through to reach such a conclusion, eh?

Clinton’s just needed to put up a good show in NY to march-on to her goal of the Democrat nomination, as she just has to keep relentlessly adding to her clutch of delegates to keep her rival Bernie Sanders at bay. We all knew she was inevitably going to do that, as not only is New York her adopted State (eight years as Senator), but she had very soundly beaten Barack Obama there in the previous Primary back in 2008. Sure enough she won the contest again this time and banked the hoard of some 175 delegates that it had brought her, while Sanders fell further behind taking about just 106.

Whatever momentum he had gained with a number of landsides against Clinton before his inadequate Wisconsin win last month, was clearly lost in NY as he desperately needed to win. There can be little doubt that despite his positive public utterings he knew he would make no real gains in NY State, and had settled for a decent share of the available delegates, eh?

It would be better for the Democrat Party if Sanders stacked early, so allow unity BEFORE the Convention and all coalescence behind Candidate Clinton. After all Sanders has only comparatively recently nailed his colours to the Democrat mast – previously he has sat as an independent Senator (the cynics will suspect that his joining-up was his one and only chance of getting a shot at the Presidency, perhaps?).

Many of the sites giving the details of the Democrat primaries’ results show the numbers of ‘pledged’ delegates and this can be a bit misleading as there are also so-called unpledged ‘superdelegates’ to be recruited to a Candidate – these include distinguished party leaders, and elected officials, including all Democratic members of the House and Senate and sitting Democratic governors. Clinton has been busiest in securing such support and has got about five hundred of them in her swag bag, while Sanders has only about three dozen. Sanders’ naive aim ‘now’ is to turn Clinton’s superdelegates at the Convention in July – dream on Bernie, eh?

democratdelegates20April

The chart shows that Clinton is very close to getting the delegate numbers she needs while Sanders is still miles away – that doesn’t mean she will win but is a good bet unless something suddenly develops.

democratdelegates%20April

On percentage terms you really have to back Clinton but Sanders has crawled over the half way mark now.

On the other political side, Trump was equally on home territory in NY as it is his personal stomping ground with massive positive publicity emanating from his real estate mogul status and his name emblazoned and stamped on multiple big buildings there (like 200m high Trump Tower). He was always going to be a hands-down winner in that State and secure the big spoils (some 89 delegates), while his erstwhile main opponent for the Candidacy Ted Cruz was fighting a lost cause there so indeed came nowhere and picked-up no delegates at all.

Notwithstanding that, Trump needed this good show to balance his very bad result in the Wisconsin Primary when Cruz triumphed over him, but is now the one licking his wounds as Republican little hoper John Kasich took second place with a quarter of the votes (and 4 delegates). That seemingly somewhat minor result in NY means that Kasich will be encouraged to carry on, yet when Cruz’s only real hope of the Candidacy outright is to face-off Trump directly in the remaining Primaries, rather than have the anti-Trump vote split, isn’t it?

It had been previously suggested that Wisconsin might be a pointer to the future for the Republican hopefuls, but that didn’t of course imply any drop-off from Trump’s potential in NY – indeed there was an unprecedented turnout and he as expected won handsomely in all areas. The proof of the pudding will come in subsequent Primaries, wont it. As demonstrated by his campaign in NY there is now a much softening of Trump’s harsh tone and aggressive dialogue – but the damage has been done, and the consequences are irretrievable for the Republican Party, which will have a snowball in hell’s chance of the Presidency with him as their Candidate.

To many observers, the most likely outcome of the Primaries is that Trump will go to the July Republican National Convention in the lead, but without the competed mandate from their electorate. As things stand now, Trump may well be substantially in the lead, but he hasn’t actually secured the majority of delegates currently allotted from the primaries & caucuses – those previously fixed to other candidates who have failed or dropped out of the race can be used to thwart him at a contested Convention, where the establishment will marshal all their forces to see-off the Trump interloper, won’t they? Now he is well aware of that scenario and has predicted (if not promised) street violence if that occurs. He has recently also been vitriolically complaining that the cards have been stacked against him by the selection process – he doesn’t care to mention that the rules were fully established long BEFORE Trump ever appeared on the scene as a Candidate, does he?

republicandelegates20April

While Trump looks significantly ahead on the chart, it is the majority delegates that he doesn’t have that could ditch him in the end

republicandelegates%20April

The percentage chart can’t give much confidence to Trump as he has struggled to get less than three quarters of the way there

–ooOoo–

[The World is clearly very much paying attention to who just might be the next US President. Britain has particular concerns as well, because it has had a long-term predominantly close relationship with America

 usaflags           Seal_of_the_President_of_the_United_States_svgThe President of the United States

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s