Crystal ball result of the UK 2015 General Election – want to know?

surprisecrysatalball
 

Dadman007′s General Election prediction is based on the opinion that Labour will hang on to their current level of support, but that the Conservatives’ star will fade before the Election. What do YOU think? [Get your own prediction done?].

Such a scenario has been run through a major predictor website and it doesn’t show a hung parliament as the pundits say, but actually an outright win for Labour’s Ed Miliband and with UKIP languishing badly – surprised or shocked if that actually happens?

Bit of fun really – don’t take it too seriously will you?

Dadman007 & National Prediction: LAB majority 52

Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Pred Seats
CON 37.0% 307 30.0% 24 74 257
LAB 29.7% 258 35.0% 93 0 351
LIB 23.6% 57 6.0% 0 46 11
UKIP 3.2% 0 15.0% 2 0 2
NAT 2.3% 9 2.3% 1 0 10
MIN 0.9% 19 0.9% 1 1 19
OTH 3.5% 0 10.9% 0 0 0

 

List of predicted seat changes

TableColumnFormat(‘llcccl’) Seat County/Area Predicted Change MP as at 2010
Aberconwy Clwyd LAB gain from CON : Guto Bebb
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Grampian CON gain from LIB : Sir Robert Smith
Amber Valley Derbyshire LAB gain from CON : Nigel Mills
Argyll and Bute Argyll and Bute LAB gain from LIB : Alan Reid
Bedford Bedfordshire LAB gain from CON : Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Southwark LAB gain from LIB : Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-Tweed Northumberland CON gain from LIB : Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Borders CON gain from LIB : Michael Moore
Birmingham Yardley Birmingham LAB gain from LIB : John Hemming
Blackpool North and Cleveleys Lancashire LAB gain from CON : Paul Maynard
Bradford East West Yorkshire LAB gain from LIB : David Ward
Brecon and Radnorshire Powys CON gain from LIB : Roger Williams
Brent Central Brent LAB gain from LIB : Sarah Teather
Brentford and Isleworth Hounslow LAB gain from CON : Mary Macleod
Brighton Kemptown East Sussex LAB gain from CON : Simon Kirby
Brighton Pavilion East Sussex LAB gain from MIN : Caroline Lucas
Bristol North West Bristol area LAB gain from CON : Charlotte Leslie
Bristol West Bristol area LAB gain from LIB : Stephen Williams
Broxtowe Nottinghamshire LAB gain from CON : Anna Soubry
Burnley Lancashire LAB gain from LIB : Gordon Birtwistle
Bury North Western Manchester LAB gain from CON : David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Highland LAB gain from LIB : John Thurso
Calder Valley West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Craig Whittaker
Cambridge Cambridgeshire LAB gain from LIB : Julian Huppert
Cannock Chase Staffordshire LAB gain from CON : Aidan Burley
Cardiff Central South Glamorgan LAB gain from LIB : Jenny Willott
Cardiff North South Glamorgan LAB gain from CON : Jonathan Evans
Carlisle Cumbria LAB gain from CON : John Stevenson
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Dyfed LAB gain from CON : Simon Hart
Carshalton and Wallington Sutton CON gain from LIB : Tom Brake
Ceredigion Dyfed NAT gain from LIB : Mark Williams
Cheadle Eastern Manchester CON gain from LIB : Mark Hunter
Cheltenham Gloucestershire CON gain from LIB : Martin Horwood
Chester, City of Cheshire LAB gain from CON : Stephen Mosley
Chippenham Wiltshire CON gain from LIB : Duncan Hames
Clacton Essex UKIP gain from CON : Douglas Carswell
Cleethorpes Humber area LAB gain from CON : Martin Vickers
Colne Valley West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Jason McCartney
Corby Northamptonshire LAB gain from CON : Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall North Cornwall CON gain from LIB : Dan Rogerson
Croydon Central Croydon LAB gain from CON : Gavin Barwell
Dewsbury West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole North Dorset CON gain from LIB : Annette Brooke
Dover Kent LAB gain from CON : Charlie Elphicke
Dudley South Black Country LAB gain from CON : Chris Kelly
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Dumfries and Galloway LAB gain from CON : David Mundell
Dunbartonshire East Glasgow area LAB gain from LIB : Jo Swinson
Ealing Central and Acton Ealing LAB gain from CON : Angie Bray
Eastbourne East Sussex CON gain from LIB : Stephen Lloyd
Eastleigh Hampshire CON gain from LIB : Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh West Edinburgh area LAB gain from LIB : Michael Crockart
Elmet and Rothwell West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield North Enfield LAB gain from CON : Nick de Bois
Erewash Derbyshire LAB gain from CON : Jessica Lee
Fife North East Fife LAB gain from LIB : Sir Menzies Campbell
Gloucester Gloucestershire LAB gain from CON : Richard Graham
Gordon Grampian LAB gain from LIB : Malcolm Bruce
Great Yarmouth Norfolk LAB gain from CON : Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley Regis Black Country LAB gain from CON : James Morris
Harrow East Harrow LAB gain from CON : Bob Blackman
Hastings and Rye East Sussex LAB gain from CON : Amber Rudd
Hazel Grove Eastern Manchester CON gain from LIB : Andrew Stunell
Hendon Barnet LAB gain from CON : Matthew Offord
High Peak Derbyshire LAB gain from CON : Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood Green Haringey LAB gain from LIB : Lynne Featherstone
Hove East Sussex LAB gain from CON : Mike Weatherley
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Highland LAB gain from LIB : Danny Alexander
Ipswich Suffolk LAB gain from CON : Ben Gummer
Keighley West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Kris Hopkins
Kingston and Surbiton Kingston Upon Thames CON gain from LIB : Edward Davey
Kingswood Bristol area LAB gain from CON : Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and Fleetwood Lancashire LAB gain from CON : Eric Ollerenshaw
Lincoln Lincolnshire LAB gain from CON : Karl McCartney
Loughborough Leicestershire LAB gain from CON : Nicky Morgan
Manchester Withington Central Manchester LAB gain from LIB : John Leech
Milton Keynes South Buckinghamshire LAB gain from CON : Iain Stewart
Morecambe and Lunesdale Lancashire LAB gain from CON : David Morris
Northampton North Northamptonshire LAB gain from CON : Michael Ellis
Norwich North Norfolk LAB gain from CON : Chloe Smith
Norwich South Norfolk LAB gain from LIB : Simon Wright
Nuneaton Warwickshire LAB gain from CON : Marcus Jones
Orkney and Shetland Orkney and Shetland UKIP gain from LIB : Alistair Carmichael
Pendle Lancashire LAB gain from CON : Andrew Stephenson
Peterborough Cambridgeshire LAB gain from CON : Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Devon LAB gain from CON : Oliver Colville
Preseli Pembrokeshire Dyfed LAB gain from CON : Stephen Crabb
Pudsey West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Stuart Andrew
Redcar Teesside LAB gain from LIB : Ian Swales
Ribble South Lancashire LAB gain from CON : Lorraine Fullbrook
Ross Skye and Lochaber Highland LAB gain from LIB : Charles Kennedy
Rossendale and Darwen Lancashire LAB gain from CON : Jake Berry
Sherwood Nottinghamshire LAB gain from CON : Mark Spencer
Solihull Coventry and Solihull CON gain from LIB : Lorely Burt
Somerset North East Bristol area LAB gain from CON : Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and Frome Somerset CON gain from LIB : David Heath
Southport Merseyside CON gain from LIB : John Pugh
St Austell and Newquay Cornwall CON gain from LIB : Stephen Gilbert
St Ives Cornwall CON gain from LIB : Andrew George
Stafford Staffordshire LAB gain from CON : Jeremy Lefroy
Stevenage Hertfordshire LAB gain from CON : Stephen McPartland
Stockton South Teesside LAB gain from CON : James Wharton
Stourbridge Black Country LAB gain from CON : Margot James
Stroud Gloucestershire LAB gain from CON : Neil Carmichael
Sutton and Cheam Sutton CON gain from LIB : Paul Burstow
Swindon South Wiltshire LAB gain from CON : Robert Buckland
Taunton Deane Somerset CON gain from LIB : Jeremy Browne
Thurrock Essex LAB gain from CON : Jackie Doyle-Price
Torbay Devon CON gain from LIB : Adrian Sanders
Twickenham Richmond Upon Thames CON gain from LIB : Vincent Cable
Vale of Glamorgan South Glamorgan LAB gain from CON : Alun Cairns
Warrington South Cheshire LAB gain from CON : David Mowat
Warwick and Leamington Warwickshire LAB gain from CON : Chris White
Warwickshire North Warwickshire LAB gain from CON : Dan Byles
Watford Hertfordshire LAB gain from CON : Richard Harrington
Waveney Suffolk LAB gain from CON : Peter Aldous
Weaver Vale Cheshire LAB gain from CON : Graham Evans
Wells Somerset CON gain from LIB : Tessa Munt
Wirral West Merseyside LAB gain from CON : Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South West Black Country LAB gain from CON : Paul Uppal
Worcester Hereford and Worcestershire LAB gain from CON : Robin Walker
Wyre Forest Hereford and Worcestershire MIN gain from CON : Mark Garnier

The MP listed is as at the general election in 2010 and may not be that party’s candidate at the next election.

The data above has been obtained from ‘Electoral Calculus’

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

We have been making election predictions for twenty years, and were the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.

 

 

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